NOTE: I changed the title. I wrote "Pick", instead of "Prediction", implying that this is the guy that I endorse and want to win. This is not so. It is simply my evaluation of the race as it stands now. And remember, I could be totaly wrong. After all, I am just an average joe on the side lines of politics.
I've been meaning to post about this conclusion for a while. Being a conservative minded independent makes it hard to deal with, plus the fact that I have real issues with the guy and his penchant for sky-is-falling rehtoric, but I have come to the conclusion that Gore has a real shot at the Presidency in 2008.
His position on the war has been much more consistent than most other Dem, even if it's only because he was not in office and didn't have to vote on the resolution. Many in the nation have become war weary so the Republicans will have a hard time keeping the independent vote on their side. Plus, by 2008 we will almost certainly be in the process of troop withdrawal from Iraq. Throw in Gore's long term concern / obsession with the environment he scores Mega Points with the Kossacks and Hard Progressives and can translate into a win in the primaries.
He was VP during the 90's and presided over a tremendous economic boom. Never mind that it was built on an illusionary business model, the Dot Com's, and that the Clinton administration put the pin to the tech bubble when the DOJ sued Micro$oft in '98. And I mean really, when government officials start talking about how they may have beaten the economic cycle - buy bonds.
Anyway, presidential administrations generally get too much credit / blame for good / bad economic times, but Gore was VP and can be associated with the good economy of the '90s. Plus, they, both Dem president AND Republican congress, managed to accidentally run the government with a surplus, though the actual size of it was grossly exaggerated by combining the ten year projection with principles of ceteris paribus (all things stay the same) which, as a budgetary practice, should be against the law for the government to do that (and for me to use the term ceteris paribus).
"It was a simpler time!" (I'm quoting this from someone, and even though I don't know who, I don't want to be accused of plagiarism, so I give that person credit for the line, who ever it is). Times were good, for the most part, during Gore's tenure, and compared to the current terrorist threat the nation now faces, the '90s do seem like a simpler time, though the threat was there and the administration just chose to pass the hard decisions to the next guys. Regardless, if Gore plays his cards right, (left-of-center actually), he could foster a '90s nostalgia of sorts to appeal to the centrist vote.
'90s nostalgia = Popular AND Electoral win for presidency, IF he can manage to maybe, oh, win his home state of Tennessee.
Of coarse, it all depends on who the Republicans pick as their guy. Guliani trumps Hillary (God forbid she or Jeb run), but I don't think he trumps Gore. Is Newt the Republican ace-in-the-hole against the Big G.???