Wednesday, June 21, 2006

My Prediction For The 2008 Presidencial Race (CD's not going to like this)

NOTE: I changed the title. I wrote "Pick", instead of "Prediction", implying that this is the guy that I endorse and want to win. This is not so. It is simply my evaluation of the race as it stands now. And remember, I could be totaly wrong. After all, I am just an average joe on the side lines of politics.

I've been meaning to post about this conclusion for a while. Being a conservative minded independent makes it hard to deal with, plus the fact that I have real issues with the guy and his penchant for sky-is-falling rehtoric, but I have come to the conclusion that Gore has a real shot at the Presidency in 2008.

His position on the war has been much more consistent than most other Dem, even if it's only because he was not in office and didn't have to vote on the resolution. Many in the nation have become war weary so the Republicans will have a hard time keeping the independent vote on their side. Plus, by 2008 we will almost certainly be in the process of troop withdrawal from Iraq. Throw in Gore's long term concern / obsession with the environment he scores Mega Points with the Kossacks and Hard Progressives and can translate into a win in the primaries.

He was VP during the 90's and presided over a tremendous economic boom. Never mind that it was built on an illusionary business model, the Dot Com's, and that the Clinton administration put the pin to the tech bubble when the DOJ sued Micro$oft in '98. And I mean really, when government officials start talking about how they may have beaten the economic cycle - buy bonds.

Anyway, presidential administrations generally get too much credit / blame for good / bad economic times, but Gore was VP and can be associated with the good economy of the '90s. Plus, they, both Dem president AND Republican congress, managed to accidentally run the government with a surplus, though the actual size of it was grossly exaggerated by combining the ten year projection with principles of ceteris paribus (all things stay the same) which, as a budgetary practice, should be against the law for the government to do that (and for me to use the term ceteris paribus).

"It was a simpler time!" (I'm quoting this from someone, and even though I don't know who, I don't want to be accused of plagiarism, so I give that person credit for the line, who ever it is). Times were good, for the most part, during Gore's tenure, and compared to the current terrorist threat the nation now faces, the '90s do seem like a simpler time, though the threat was there and the administration just chose to pass the hard decisions to the next guys. Regardless, if Gore plays his cards right, (left-of-center actually), he could foster a '90s nostalgia of sorts to appeal to the centrist vote.

'90s nostalgia = Popular AND Electoral win for presidency, IF he can manage to maybe, oh, win his home state of Tennessee.

Of coarse, it all depends on who the Republicans pick as their guy. Guliani trumps Hillary (God forbid she or Jeb run), but I don't think he trumps Gore. Is Newt the Republican ace-in-the-hole against the Big G.???

8 comments:

Scootmaroo said...

Ferris Buehler, you're my hero!

I am in large agreement with this. PLEASE GOD DON'T LET JEB RUN!!!!!!!! I am so sick of this Dynasty I can't even think straight. Um. I mean.. well, you know.

Citizen Deux said...

Jeb, no way.

Gore, not even if every Republican stayed home and pouted on election day.

His foray into the film world will come back to haunt him in a thousand unpleasant sound bites.

Remember Dukakis in the tank? Imagine Gore in the lift scene. Now picture this with an ominous voice over regarding taxes.

No, I would look to a strong democratic governor for a candidate against a strong republican governor.

Geez, frog, you been lickin' yourself? This is off base even for you!

Scootmaroo said...

Actually, this is pretty much the beltway buzz. And the film is touching a lot of chords...and making a ton of money. I think the pendulum, though not yet in full swing, is well on its way.

I concur with Froggy.

Citizen Deux said...

A wise man once said, Do not write when you can speak, do not speak when you can nod, do not nod when you can do nothing and never ever send e-mail.

To paraphrase, Mr. Gore has taken a huge leap. Many folks will shell out their hard earned cash (because, really it's got to be better than the Constant Gardener), but the reality of this venture will soon show itself.

No, Mr. Gore is done. The wishful thinking of some in the DNC is just that. You would be better off rerunning Jimmy Carter (shudder)

sabinal said...

I don't want Gore - I'll even vote for Jeb first. People have a horrible time with reality; they think if they vote Gore, they can redo 2000-2008. When terrorists continue to strike, when the Middle East is still a pain in the hynie, and when gas prices still remail above $2 a gallon, those dreams will be destroyed.
And I voted for him in 2000, Green in 2004.
Gore is only in the picture because he is schlepping his film. Outside of that, he is a political nobody who is only riding out his fame on the anti-popular President (Dynasty? give me a break. You're able to handle the Kennedys well).
Gore has nothing but wishful thinkers and "woulda, shoulda, coulda" people on his side. I want a president who can deal with the here and now, not one that has a grudge from 2000.

sonicfrog said...

I don't necessarily want Gore either, but it's the way I read the political tea leaves at the moment. Of coarse, it's a long road from here the the '08 elections. So much could happen between now and then.

And no Scoot, I'm not trying to get into your pants. I don't even know where you live! Plus, the Sonic-Mate is a very jealous Sonic-Mate!

Welcome to the Sonic-Social sabinal. Always glad to see a new pen scribbling stuff on my cyber-screed.

Scootmaroo said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Scootmaroo said...

(My original post/retort had massive spelling errors. Here is the corrected version. The verbage is the same. So sorry, I am resting up to deal blackjack on the graduation boat party tonight. Until 3 friggin' AM).

Um. Exactly when did I say that you wanted in my pants? I believeI might be highly insulted at the aspersion. Not that it is not a nice thought.

As for Gore, why wouldn't the guy who won the popular vote, and more than likely, actually won the election if it had not been for voter list tampering and the like by Jebbie and his gang, and the coersion of the Supreme Court, not be a good choice to run again? HOW many times did Reagan run, HOW many times did people say he could never be elected????

And, yes, (this is added) I think there are a hell a lot of people, myself included, who want to see the wrongs of 2000 redressed. Sorry if that makes me the evil liberal, but I still think we hold the moral high ground.