Saturday, August 05, 2006

Politics at a Glance.

Since my blog-friend Scoot was linked to the web-mag Slate because he wrote some political hub-bub, I figured, to get notice by the MSBM (Main Stream Blog Media) I'd give that same strategy a try, even though I know my ideas are less original than Scoots.

I'’ve lately been pondering (no, Ian, that is not swimming in a small body of water) about thelikelihoodd that the Dems are going to take at least one house in congress. Lets face it. if the political landscape remains similar to those we currently see, ceteris paribus, then the elections coming in November are the Dems to lose. I'’m convinced they will take at least one body of congress. I ask myself, the part of me that is politically detatched, what would be the consequences for the party in charge if they lose one house?

If the Dems take the House, we will almost certainly see impeachment hearings. Not great during a war, but who knows what the outcome will be. If those hearings stick to the torture and NSA spying issues, they may have a shot. If they try the "“Bush Lied"” meme, they will probably look like fools, as there are too many Dems who proclaimed, pre 9/11, pre G W Bush, that Saddam was hiding WMD's.

If the Dems take the Senate, the republicans can say ta-ta to any more Roberts / Alito type judges getting any chance of a fair shake in confirmation hearings.

No matter which house the Dems might win, you can bet there will be a boat load of investigations going on, either as a result of those that are currently stalled, or new ones. Either way, the Republicans are in for a very rough ride for the next two years.

6 comments:

Hunter said...

I'm not so sure. I'm starting to favor Josh Marshall's theory of our three-party system: Republicans, Democrats, and Incumbents.

I don't know that I'll be expecting any big changes if the Democrats take back either house (or both, which seems like a possibility).

Scootmaroo said...

My God. Sonic. That was incredibly profound. See what you can do with a little jeolosy incentive? Also, I have a wonderful new definition for the word "pondering".....

sonicfrog said...

Yes, but did you notice that I coined a new acronym, MSBM!

PS. I wrote that piece three days ago as a comment on another blog, before I found out you got all famous on us!

Simon said...

"I ask myself, the part of me that is politically detatched, what would be the consequences for the party in charge if they lose one house?"

I pondered the same thing back in May, concluding that we'd probably lose the House, but in the end, that would actually be a positive thing for the GOP. However, the thought does occur that the Dems are in the process of blowing a perfectly respectable chance of taking back at least one chamber of Congress.


"If the Dems take the Senate, the republicans can say ta-ta to any more Roberts / Alito type judges getting any chance of a fair shake in confirmation hearings."

Not that you're wrong, but there's something extremely peculiar in a world where Roberts and Alito can seriously be regarded as being anything other than moderate, mainstream judges. Sure, they lean conservative, and they certainly take a different view of the role of government in general and courts in particular than do liberals, but for all the hissing, you'd think that they were the right-wing equivalent of a Bill Brennan - outspoken instrumentalists out to impose their own policy agenda. In no way are either a Scalia or a Thomas, something readily apparent after the first term.

Citizen Deux said...

Sorry, I am sticking with my "not likely" defense. Let's look at this a few different ways;

McKinney loses the runoff and dems keep her seat - or she wins the runoff and dems lose the seat

Lieberman loses the runoff and wins as an independent.

Murtha just loses.

To much net change resulting in the status quo.

Sonic and Scoot, you are both eligible for dinner (on me) if either house flips.

sonicfrog said...

You're sooo on!

See the above post titled Lawyers With A Sense Of Humor! for the proper methodology of deciding the eating establishment.